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Italy grows less than the European average estimated spread in autumn by the EU Commission on the economy of Euroland. Growth forecasts for Italy are being revised downwards: in 2008 our GDP will grow by 1, 4% against a European average of 2.2%, in 2007 we will stop at 1, 9% against an average of 2.6%. But the debt falls more than expected in 2007 to 104.3% in 2008 to 102.9%.
"The Italian economic growth continues, but remains below the average of the euro area," said the EU Commission in its' autumn forecast "estimates of GDP increased by 1, 9% in 2007, 1 , 4% in 2008 and 1, 6% in 2009. eurozone will grow 2.6% this year instead of 2.2% next .
In particular, says Brussels, "at the beginning of 2008 the pace of growth will be considerably lower than it was in 2007 "and" Italy will continue to lose market share. "
RESTORATION ACCOUNTS
setback in 2008 due to slower growth and the use of extraordinary resources to finance expenditure by some countries, in 2008 the downward trend of the ratio of deficit to GDP in the euro zone average will suffer a setback in the Commission. In the euro area deficit-GDP ratio will fall to the end of this' from 1 year, 5 to 0.8% and remaining on the 0.9% in 2008 and return on 0.8% in 2009.
Groom ITALY
But the EU Commission on the budget sends a message even more its precise our country: experts in Brussels also argued that the Financial missing "convincing measures to curb the growth of public spending." It is also why the 2008 deficit is expected to 2.3% from 2.2% estimated by the Italian government. Particularly worrying is the fact that "some costs may slip from 2007 to 2008."
"The Italian government confirmed a deficit-GDP ratio to 2.2% in 2008." But "the draft of the budget," write the offices of Commissioner Joaquin Almunia "provides a reorganization of public spending, as well as additional current expenditure and some tax cuts." In particular, "the financing of public sector wage increases for the period 2006-2007 absorbs nearly three quarters of the additional expenditure, "while the tax cuts mainly concern the deductibility for rents and municipal property tax (ICI). In the budget, in addition, the Commission points out, there are reduced IRES and IRAP . Although it is stressed again, "broadening the tax base should lead to an overall positive impact on the budget."
In this framework, they explain in Brussels, "based on the projections of primary expenditures remain slightly more cautious in the absence convincing measures to contain expenditure growth and taking into account certain expenses that may slip from 2007 to 2008. "Moreover, the primary surplus should remain broadly unchanged and "the interest expenditure is estimated to increase by another 0.1%."
CURB THE GROWTH IN ALL EUROLAND
In 2008 economic growth in the eurozone will be 2.2%, or 0.3 percentage points less than expected six months ago, in 2009, growth is expected to testify later on 2 , 1% versus 2.4 previously estimated. Brussels confirmed for this year but an increase of Euro GDP of 2.6%. The slowdown in growth, the Commission explains, is the result of the turmoil that has hit the international financial markets.
GDP ITALY suffered from the crisis FINANCIAL
The new estimates for 2007 and 2008 indicate that the effects of the crisis financial markets will also be downloaded in Italy on 2008, when the GDP will increase by less than potential (which is 1, 6%), while in 2007 it will exceed. This year's activities are supported by favorable jobs and tax incentives as private consumption are the main engine of growth.
The problem affects exports, although the value increased significantly in Italy "continues to accumulate losses of significant market shares in volume terms.
year due to the weak dynamics of imports of energy products in particular net exports will contribute positively to GDP even if the services, including tourism, are pushing in the opposite direction.
Next year, imports will increase due to strong exchange and Italy will continue to lose market share as measured by volume. " And so in 2009.
In 2008, the EU estimates of GDP (1.4%) is less than three decimal points compared with the estimates of spring, private consumption remains the main driver with a deceleration due to the higher savings and investment spending will weaken ( decline in construction). The acceleration in 2009 is considered "light".
will continue the decline in the unemployment rate: from 6.8% in 2006 to 5.9% in 2007 to 5.7% in 2008 and 5.5% in 2009 and decelerate employment growth. Confirmed the decline in productivity growth in 2008 and slight recovery in 2009, the increase in wages per employee will increase to an extent "moderate" this year (2.4%), but will accelerate in 2008 (3.7%) for the deadline contracts in the public and private. Consequently, it will enhance the growth of unit labor costs from 1, 2% in 2007 to 3.1% in 2008.
DEBT FALLS MORE 'THAN EXPECTED
Positive news on the front instead of the Italian public debt, to fall to 104.3% in 2007 and 102.9% in 2008. The new forecasts are therefore best, at least in this sense, both of the previous estimates of Brussels (105% and 103.1%) both those contained in the Budget of the Italian government (105% and 103.5%). "The Italian public debt," explains the EU Commission is expected to decline slightly in 2009 to 101.2%.
CONCERNS OF ALMUNIA
in slow growth of Italy and the issue of public debt to worry the EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia. "Unfortunately," she said "the growth of Italy in 2008 will be the lowest in the euro zone. And these problems are structural." As for the debt, he sottlineato that Italy is the only EU country forced to use 5% of GDP on interest rates on debt.
